Asian powers tread carefully as Iran war disrupts energy supplies

2026-03-13 - 11:23

Thousands of miles from the Middle East battlefield, Asia's largest economies are navigating a precarious diplomatic path as the Iran conflict disrupts energy flows vital to their industries. China, Japan, South Korea and India—all major importers of Gulf oil—have responded to the US-Israeli strikes on Iran with measured statements expressing concern rather than taking sides. Energy dependence shapes cautious responses In their first reactions to the joint bombardment that killed former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and some 1,300 others, Asian capitals have prioritized energy security over geopolitical alignment. Beijing said it was "highly concerned," while Tokyo, Seoul and New Delhi issued similar calls for restraint and diplomacy. "The policies of Asian nations demonstrate that energy security and strategic autonomy typically take precedence over other considerations," said Chien-Yu Shih, an associate research fellow at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research. Japan's dual dependency creates balancing act Tokyo faces particular challenges balancing its security alliance with Washington against its near-total dependence on Middle Eastern energy. "Japan depends on the US for security and the Middle East for energy. That dual dependence explains why Tokyo's response will emphasize restraint, diplomacy, and stability rather than taking sides publicly," said Nancy Snow, an advisor to the International Security Industry Council Japan. Kazuto Suzuki, an expert at the Tokyo-based Institute of Geoeconomics, added that energy supplies remain Japan's top priority, with the government focused on peaceful resolution rather than assigning blame. Different positions, same vulnerabilities Despite sharing energy vulnerabilities, Asian powers lack coordinated response mechanisms. Experts note historical tensions between Japan and China make joint action "unrealistic," while South Korea and Japan must balance their US alliances against energy needs. China imports approximately 50 percent of its oil from the Middle East, but for Japan and South Korea, that figure reaches 90 percent, placing them in "a much tighter place" according to Andrea Ghiselli of the University of Exeter. Strategic reserves provide temporary buffer With Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the International Energy Agency coordinated a historic release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Japan maintains one of the world's largest stockpiles, sufficient for 200-240 days of normal consumption. However, analysts warn these buffers provide only short-term resilience, not permanent solutions. The crisis exposes what Chien terms "the region's structural vulnerabilities," with Asia consuming vast oil quantities while producing little, leaving it highly exposed to Gulf infrastructure disruptions. Long-term diversification strategies emerge The conflict is accelerating Asian efforts to diversify energy sources. Experts anticipate renewed pushes for US, Latin American and Australian imports, alongside accelerated nuclear power development and economic electrification. "There will be a general hope for the US to bring this war to an end," Ghiselli noted, adding that outcomes "also depend on Iran." Meanwhile, China maintains its "comprehensive strategic partnership" with Tehran while positioning as a neutral mediator, reflecting the complex calculus facing all Asian powers as they navigate between immediate energy needs and long-term strategic interests.