Ethiopia at crossroads: Geopolitical fragility and Türkiye's strategic role

2026-03-05 - 10:02

The Horn of Africa has emerged as a critical arena of global competition, with Ethiopia standing at the center due to its large population, military capability and historical state tradition. However, since the Tigray War erupted in 2020, the country has confronted simultaneous geopolitical, economic, political and humanitarian crises that threaten not only its internal stability but the broader regional balance. As one of the most volatile periods since the 1980s unfolds, Ethiopia's sovereign decision-making capacity appears historically weakened. Geopolitical dimension: Weakening decision-making capacity Regional dynamics have grown increasingly precarious following Israel's recognition of Somaliland, a move that undermines Ethiopia's strategy of securing sea access through recognition-based negotiations with the breakaway territory. The memorandum signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland in 2024 had raised hopes in Addis Ababa, but Israeli diplomatic engagement signals a new phase where Ethiopian and Israeli interests do not fully align. Meanwhile, the threat from Al-Shabaab in Somalia persists, Sudan remains engulfed in civil war, and Ethiopia's internal conflicts in Amhara, Oromia and Tigray continue unresolved. The Addis Ababa government's renewed maritime access discourse and harsh rhetoric toward Eritrea have further heightened regional tensions, while rising confrontations with Sudan over the past six months raise questions about whether such policies yield tangible national interest gains. Economic fragility and external dependency Ethiopia's economic trajectory reveals deepening vulnerabilities. Tax and export revenues continue declining, with export growth heavily reliant on the mining sector—a precarious dependence given that mining activities often operate in conflict-affected zones. Currency devaluation measures aimed at mitigating macroeconomic imbalances risk further eroding public services. While financial support from Gulf countries and China's debt restructuring have provided temporary breathing space, this may limit international financial institutions' influence and reduce long-term reform pressure. Economic fragility thus acts as a multiplier, exacerbating existing political and humanitarian risks. Political centralization and shrinking civic space Domestic politics show increasing power concentration around the executive branch, with frequent Cabinet reshuffles and a narrowing political leadership pool. The departure of prominent Oromo and Amhara figures from the ruling party signals elite-level fragmentation, while imprisoned opposition figures and others in exile indicate shrinking political space. This centralization has weakened local governance capacity, with insufficient financing and growing political control eroding health, education, agriculture and humanitarian assistance delivery. Corruption, administrative inertia and declining data transparency have further diminished the state's ability to provide essential services. Ongoing conflicts and humanitarian crisis Despite the November 2022 ceasefire in Tigray largely holding, internal conflicts persist. In Amhara, operations continue against a fragmented but socially rooted insurgency, with the state of emergency extended. Oromia clashes with the Oromo Liberation Army have entered their fifth year. Displaced populations, particularly in Western Tigray, have not secured return, and federal-regional tensions endure. The weak 2023 harvest triggered serious food crises in Eastern Tigray, Northern Amhara and Afar, with agricultural production far below pre-war levels and social safety nets former scale. Significance of President Erdoğan's visit Against this multilayered fragile backdrop, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's recent visit to Ethiopia carried strategic weight. The comprehensive high-level reception in Addis Ababa reflected the foundation of trust built through Türkiye's past security and economic support. More significantly, Erdoğan's direct message—emphasizing that Israel's recognition of Somaliland would bring neither stability nor benefit to Somaliland or the Horn of Africa, and warning against transforming the region into a theater of foreign power competition—offered a strategic framework beyond routine diplomatic engagement. While Israel's president subsequently visited Addis Ababa, suggesting Ethiopia's attempt to balance growing geopolitical isolation risks, Israel's capacity to directly resolve Ethiopia's core unresolved issues remains limited. As Ethiopia navigates simultaneous geopolitical tensions, economic fragility, political centralization and internal conflicts, the region's future will largely depend on whether Addis Ababa can reestablish internal stability and translate external relations into strategic gains.