Fractures in Washington: the US has already lost the war

2026-03-20 - 21:09

When I was a child, I watched matches held between the wrestling clubs of two cities. Our city’s team was storming through, thrilling our fellow townspeople. Up to the 74-kilo match, our guys had crushed the opposing team’s wrestlers one after another. I’ll never forget: in that weight class, a blonde, sinewy wrestler stepped onto the mat to represent the opposing team. In each round, he twisted and turned our team’s athlete, overpowering him, and gifted his team their first victory. He wrestled with incredible technique. Even the spectators were impressed and gave him a long round of applause after the match. In the other weight classes, our team’s dominance continued. The final match was to be between the two heavyweights. Our guy stepped onto the mat with confidence, his physique imposing. However, the opposing team had no heavyweight wrestler. Just as our guy was about to be declared the winner by default, the opposing team’s coach approached the referees and said something. The referees looked at him in surprise. They conferred among themselves for a while. Finally, an announcement was made. It was declared that the opposing team’s 74-kilo wrestler—the one who had captivated everyone in his own weight class—would face our heavyweight. The stands were bewildered. But soon a pleasant excitement and curiosity took hold of everyone. That blonde wrestler, having put his singlet back on, stepped onto the mat. This would be his second match. Opposite him stood a “giant” nearly twice his weight and not tired like he was. Everyone was laughing and preparing to watch a match where they thought our guy would toy with his opponent like a cat playing with a mouse. Our “bull” would crush him and avenge our only loss. The match began. Our guy was extremely confident. He must have thought he would get a result quickly, because he started attacking from all sides. His 74-kilo opponent, however, fended off his overwhelming pressure with fast, skillful moves. He had a subtle strategy. Throughout the first two rounds, he kept stalling, wearing out his opponent. But he did it so expertly that he avoided being penalized by the referees for passive wrestling. By the final round, our guy could barely stand. His opponent had gotten what he wanted: he had successfully brought him to the desired state. Using his superior technique, he began tossing our bull around like an empty sack. In the end, he won the match. The arena applauded him wildly. Yes, overall we had won—we had won, that is. But the fans were in no state to see it. The true victor of the night was that one wrestler from the other side. As I follow the war between the US-Israel duo and Iran, this childhood memory often comes to mind. After the Cold War ended, what happened in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Libya, Syria, and most recently Venezuela were recorded as colossal successes on America’s record. These were easy victories. With these “victories,” the US suffered a massive ego inflation. It could no longer see anything clearly. In this intoxication, it thought it would crush Iran too, which it saw as far below its own weight class. But after two weeks, it painfully realized that this was not the case. Looking at the current situation, everyone now sees that the US has sunk into a huge quagmire in the Gulf. The fact that it increases the intensity of its attacks day by day proves exactly that. Each marginal increase in violence indicates how futile the previous attack was. These escalations reveal how inevitable it is for the US to lose this war. The same thing happened in Vietnam. We can comfortably say that this escalation cannot continue indefinitely. Yes, some might think it’s too early, but I already judge that the US has lost. The US lost in Vietnam too. But it knew how to compensate for that defeat by activating its systemic economic power. Vietnam returned what it won on the battlefield—above all, its honor—to the US by rapidly capitalizing and integrating into the dollar system. I heard from those who visited. A giant McDonald’s has opened right across from the modest house, now a museum, of the greatest leader of the Vietnamese resistance, that heroic man who gave his name to the capital, Ho Chi Minh. Isn’t that a tragicomic situation? The US was at least victorious on paper in Afghanistan. It entered Kabul. But it couldn’t hold on; it had to leave Afghanistan, handing it over to the Taliban. We can assess this not so much as a defeat but as a failure. In Iran, the situation is completely different. There, it is not only losing militarily, but also destroying with its own hands the system it built with its own hands. The Gulf, which forms the backbone of the petrodollar system, is now collapsing. What caused this collapse is nothing other than the ill-considered intervention of the US, having fallen for the ploy of Israel, which is experiencing political mania. This intervention, meant to cleanse the Gulf of Iran, is sinking the Gulf. The sinking of the Gulf is the sinking of the US, which built its hegemony starting from here. Like our tired 100-kilo wrestler, it trips itself up with its own moves and collapses. Iran’s latest statements regarding the Strait of Hormuz are very striking. They announced that they would allow the passage of oil tankers operating with the yuan. This is the most critical development in recent days. Trump, meanwhile, is flailing more and more. He is in a tight spot. Apparently he is experiencing delusions. The US itself is experiencing great turmoil at home. The MAGA base is turning against Trump. Anti-Israel sentiment is growing rapidly in the US. The dramatic resignation of the head of the Counterterrorism Center draws attention precisely to this fracture. Those who start from the unfounded notion that “the US always wins anyway” and make their choices accordingly need to rethink their calculations a few times. Tomorrow may be too late.