Notes from the Iran war: what's going on behind the scenes?

2026-03-10 - 20:42

What's happening on the ground isn't going the way the US and Israel wanted. In the previous war (June 2025), they applied strategic paralysis, caught Iran off guard, and got what they wanted. This time they're attacking with higher capacity, but Iran is surprising them. By spreading the conflict across the region, Iran is influencing world public opinion. Iran has turned this war into a US-Israel problem. The US and Israel couldn't have possibly thought Iran would be an easy target like Venezuela. But they're not achieving their expectations in Iran. Neither is the public reacting against the regime, nor is the Iranian state accepting their demands. Iran's strategy is to prolong the war (The new leader is Mojtaba Khamenei. The conflict has shifted from military targets to vital infrastructure like water reservoirs and oil refineries. It's said that Iran has enough ballistic missile & drone stock to sustain this war for a minimum of 5 months through target prioritization.) If it manages this, Iran calculates that domestic and international pressure on the US will increase. At the same time, it thinks the US and Israel will face ammunition shortages. It's creating economic costs. It's trying to shake the confidence of Gulf allies in the US (I used to view the conflict spreading to regional countries as a strategic mistake that would deepen the crisis. But if the goal is to prolong the war, the objective is being achieved.) Iran will insist on prolonging the war. The US, on the other hand, wants to end it quickly. WHERE IS THE USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN? (In this context, could the US resort to tactical nuclear weapons? I've started hearing this concern frequently.) War is waged to impose your will. If Trump fails in Iran, the elections will also be in jeopardy. If this war drags on, the perception of failure increases. Anything could come to the table to break that. They might attempt different ground operations. The fact that the situation on the ground isn't going their way is making them aggressive. Trump is sending a third aircraft carrier, a very costly and critical decision. The Abraham Lincoln (aircraft carrier) is nowhere to be seen; Iran might have actually damaged it. WATCH CYPRUS! The war is full of uncertainties. However, some opportunities might arise for Türkiye. The place we need to watch is Cyprus. Everyone is currently bringing troops to Cyprus under some pretext or another. What is the intention behind this? We need to question it. Is it temporary, or are other things being considered? We must remain on alert (Ankara has deployed six F-16s and air defense systems to the TRNC). We also need to build closer ties with the Gulf countries. They might turn on us at the end of this process. The security of the Gulf is important for us. Those countries are our friends. That's why they're being supported. Their demands are being met (It's being discussed that the US cannot respond to the requests of some Gulf countries facing ammunition stock issues due to its own urgent needs. Note Trump's emergency-coded meeting with defense industry companies. Meanwhile, from what I hear, Gulf countries are not hiding their anger regarding Iran's attacks in the meetings. Repairing relations will be difficult in the short to medium term.) THE US-ISRAEL PLAN POINT BY POINT (The actors in Northern Iraq, Barzani-Talabani, are proceeding cautiously regarding US demands. Talabani's statement, "We must not be the spearhead of the war," is positive and appropriate.) They have to proceed cautiously. They don't have that kind of capacity anyway. The US-Israel plan was this: Kill Khamenei, create chaos in the state, incite an internal uprising from within. Once that started, they would deploy separatist groups. That's how they would change the regime. But neither an uprising happened, nor anything else. Iran's reaction to separatist groups has also been quite severe. I think the Revolutionary Guards will take even harsher measures in this regard. THERE ARE THOSE TRYING TO CROSS FROM SYRIA AND IRAQ (Trump hinted that he has given up on using separatist groups. But some groups are preparing to cross the border.) These are a few thousand people. They have no capacity. They're not organized like they were in Syria. They had expectations of getting support from organizations and structures in Syria and Iraq. There are those who want to cross from Syria and Iraq, but Iran's strikes are preventing them. That's why they're trying to do something among themselves. The expectation from Barzani and Talabani was for them to facilitate the transfer of some Kurdish groups from Syria-Iraq into Iran. But Iran's reaction was severe. If movement starts on the ground, the structures in Iraq and Syria will try to cross into Iran (A note: Barzani and Talabani currently have a serious security problem. Under Iranian attack, they are trying to say "No" to US-Israeli demands. We should strengthen their hand through methods that don't drag Türkiye into the conflict. We must not leave them alone. I see that Ankara is sensitive on this issue.) WE NEED TO SUPPORT AZERBAIJAN (Azerbaijan's reaction to Iran is being debated publicly.) Here's what we need to see: Azerbaijan is facing a serious danger. Russia is applying great pressure. If the Russians can somehow close the Ukraine chapter, Azerbaijan will be one of the first countries they target. Remember the message sent with the downed plane. There's tension in that regard. They have unsettled scores with Iran. Iran openly supported Armenia in the Karabakh War. Caught between these two powers, Baku is forced to stay close to the US. We must excuse Azerbaijan. They've been talked to as well. "Stay calm" advice was given. They softened afterwards. We need to give a lot of support to Azerbaijan. Note: I was previously discussing impressions of Iran with names whose analysis, information, and experience I have greatly benefited from and who have never misled me. It turned into such a comprehensive conversation... I've put my notes in the corner. The expressions in parentheses belong to me.