War of attrition: US, Israel and Iran test stockpiles and endurance

2026-03-04 - 23:22

Five days after the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, the conflict has entered a phase where military calculations extend beyond battlefield outcomes to questions of sustainability. Beneath the waves of missiles and airstrikes lies a fundamental calculation: whether stockpiles, air defenses and political will can support a prolonged campaign. US President Donald Trump has suggested the operation could last "four to five weeks" or longer, but analysts say the timeline will ultimately be determined by inventories, economic pressures and each side's willingness to absorb losses. US munitions and military capacity The US has mobilized significant firepower, with CENTCOM reporting more than 50,000 troops, 200 fighter jets and two aircraft carriers deployed. Adm. Brad Cooper stated Tuesday that US and Israeli forces have struck nearly 2,000 targets across Iran with over 2,000 munitions. While reports from US media citing Pentagon leaks suggest American stocks of critical missiles could run low within weeks, Trump dismissed concerns, asserting on Truth Social: "As was stated to me today, we have a virtually unlimited supply of these weapons. Wars can be fought 'forever,' and very successfully, using just these supplies." Joze Pelayo of the Atlantic Council described interceptor inventories as an "urgent concern," warning that "US interceptor stocks could genuinely hit critical lows within days, given the intensity and frequency of Iranian attacks, which appears to be precisely Tehran's strategy." Ryan Bohl of the RANE Network acknowledged potential shortages but noted strategic stockpiles in Israel and the ability to rush supplies from Europe could sustain operations, particularly if the pace of airstrikes slows. Iran's missile and drone stocks Iran has retaliated with more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones since Saturday, according to CENTCOM. Tehran relies heavily on Shahed-136 "kamikaze" drones—inexpensive to produce with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers—which Bohl noted are "the most effective against the Gulf Arab states because they don't have anti-drone defenses." Before last year's 12-day war, Iran's medium- and short-range ballistic missile stockpile was estimated at 2,500-3,000, with roughly half expended during that conflict, though Tehran has reportedly worked to replenish supplies. Bohl believes Iran retains several weeks' worth of short-range ballistic missiles and could extend that by reducing launch pace. Israel's defense systems and Lebanon factor The Israeli Air Force reported dropping over 4,000 munitions on Iranian targets since Saturday, matching the total used in last June's 12-day war. Israel's layered defenses include Iron Dome for short-range rockets, David's Sling for medium-range threats, and Arrow for long-range ballistic missiles, supplemented by US-made THAAD systems. The Times of Israel reported Wednesday that Israel's military is "planning for at least one or two more weeks of operations in Iran." However, Bohl warned that Hezbollah's involvement could prove decisive: "If Hezbollah and Iran are good at coordination, the Israeli air defense system will be tested. It will be a real question as to whether it will be able to defend itself from such coordinated attacks." Historical context and timeline Bohl noted historical precedent: "Among past US air campaigns, the longest was the one against Serbia in 1999, which was for about 90 days. I tend to think this one is going to be much shorter than 90 days because of the lack of political will in America. Trump's four to five weeks timeline may be reasonable, but it could be even shorter than that, particularly if we see an energy shock." With the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil prices soaring, and Gulf states facing sustained Iranian attacks, economic pressures may prove as decisive as military inventories in determining how long each side can continue fighting.