Who will win the war?

2026-03-11 - 17:33

How much of the life we live is truly real? Weighing civilizations on this scale reveals very striking dimensions. We witness that the facts of life we consider concrete do not remain so real when their roots are grasped. Concrete works, transactions, or more generally our actions, essentially rest on fictitious (fiktif) assumptions that are not concrete at all; they originate from there. Where fictitious values collapse, chaotic environments arise that we struggle to escape. This chaos continues until a new environment is established where a new set of fictitious values is commonly accepted. For example, that was what happened on the road to World War II. The fictitious values that were the main reference of the times known as the Belle Époque had eroded, and humanity was dragged into the adventures of fanatics like Hitler. In the world established after World War II, known as the World Order, fictitious values were redefined. From a political perspective, participatory democracy, respect for individual rights and freedoms, recognition of national independence, and non-interference in the internal affairs of nations, etc., were accepted as a set of fictitious values. Now new relations would be established according to these, and actions would be weighed on these scales and judged. Indeed, it is possible to debate to the end whether these values are inherently valuable. There have been those who did so. But concrete life and actions have, more or less, entered the discipline of the new order. This picture indicates to us that values are not so much values themselves, but rather the product of a valuation. In short, 'valuation' comes before the value itself. Evaluations manifest as a function of valuation, not of value. We can see this in the field of economics as well. For example, the history of money, which we know as a medium of exchange, shows this very clearly. Some precious metals with a long history, such as gold or silver, are essentially just metals in their concreteness. But it is humans who imbue them with valuation. From the moment this valuation receives common acceptance, gold and silver gain value in a fictitious sense and become the subject of evaluations, calculations, and transactions in economic life. Of course, the fact that gold and silver are rarer than other metals is another important criterion. In this way, their excessive multiplication and loss of value over time is prevented from the outset. For example, in Latin America, gold was so abundant that the natives did not regard it, using it at most as ornaments or children's toys. When the Spanish colonists arrived on the continent and saw children playing with marbles made of gold, their eyes nearly popped out. The Spaniards carried these riches to their homeland with insatiable greed. Then what happened? The increased abundance of gold eliminated the 'fictitious' value attributed to it. The once mighty Spanish Kingdom collapsed inward. It not only ruined itself but also the Mediterranean economies to which it was linked. These effects extended to the Italian city-states and even to the Ottoman Empire. In the modern world, the transition to paper money created a risky paradox. Infinite money could be printed in printing presses. This risk paved the way for money barons who made money from money. Their existence resembled a group of dangerous cells within economies, prone to metastasizing at any moment. The way to stop it was to tie paper money stocks to limited gold. Bretton Woods loosened this discipline. The new hegemonic power, the USA, maintained a precarious balance between 1950 and 1970, when its economic production was very vibrant. As the dollar supply increased, production also increased, so the issue was not felt at least. The dollar-based reserve currency standard imposed by the USA on the world allowed it to siphon off the world's surplus without trouble. In this way, it could also market the American Dream as a cultural fictitious value. But when its obligation to convert dollars into gold in the payments regime began to deplete its reserves, alarm bells rang. Moreover, when the welfare society it had built through intense middle-class formation began to erode productivity and reduce production, it made a critical decision. The fictitious value shifted from metal to paper. It severed the gold discipline it had already held loosely. Now it would print dollars ruthlessly. It was inevitable that this would lead to inflation, just as the Spaniards experienced with gold. To prevent this, it did two things. First, it tied world energy trade, especially oil, to the dollar. It kept demand for the dollar alive by constructing an artificial consumption culture through a widespread debt network and flashy advertisements. By turning its military power into a threat tool, it made efforts to artificially sustain the dollar, which had practically lost so much value in the world payments regime. In terms of energy, the Gulf was one of the heartlands of this scene. There, they created fake paradises through dollar-oil and arms trade. For a long time, the US dangled Iran's presence like a Damocles' sword over these fake paradises. This was a fictitious situation. Iran, which it had kept gasping under blockades but also given some room and gained ground in the meantime, turned to China, which had replaced the US, and to Russia, its historical rival, to overcome its predicament, and things reversed. Probably, the Gulf-Iran normalization brokered by China was the last straw. With Israel's provocation, they carried out a reckless attack whose purpose was unclear. We are in the tenth days of the war. Iran has proven tough and seized the initiative despite heavy material damage. Israel and the US are imposing a blackout on news flow. We don't know how many Israelis and Americans have died. Nor do we know what devastation Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa have suffered. The blackout suggests that the scale is greater than estimated. The Iranian people are united in a struggle for existence. They know they have nothing to lose. The most dangerous force on earth is the force of those who have nothing left to lose. Under heavy bombardment, each passing day strengthens Iran's power while further breaking the resolve of the other side. Asking who will win this war is meaningless. The US and Israel have already lost. The 'fictitious' world established in the Gulf is now irreparable. With dozens of its bases unusable, how will the US now protect the Gulf and from whom? Whom will it convince of this promise? Money, technology, and wealthy tourists are fleeing the fake paradises. Israelis are also fleeing Israel... Now a completely different Middle East is on the stage. The only danger is that these madmen might commit one more madness, throwing the Middle East into conflict, triggering a repeat of that infamous Thirty Years' War in history; the most frightening is if they reach for nuclear weapons. I don't even want to think about it.